Republican candidate Donald Trump surprised pollsters and pundits last
Tuesday by delivering a decisive victory in the presidential election on
November 8th. Trump’s success is largely due to a dominating performance
in the rust belt in which he flipped several key states that were
predicted for Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton.
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Play with the interactive map below to explore the differences between
the election outcomes and several popular political forecasts and polls.
Several models reveal the probabilities of each electoral vote outcome.
Play with the chart below to explore these distributions and how they
predicted the actual election outcome.
The Elections Forecaster primarily uses data from TheUpshot —
which gathers predictions from The New York Times, FiveThirtyEight,
Huffington Post, YouGov, PredictWise, Princeton Election Consortium,
Daily Kos, The Cook Political Report, The Rothenberg & Gonzales
Political Report, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball — and YouGov.
The data was scraped from TheUpshot on November 7th and YouGov on
November 6th and is binned into 7 categories:
-
50%-65%: Tossup (the outcome could
reliably go either way)
- 66%-84%: Lean Dem., Lean Rep.
- 85%-95%: Likely Dem., Likely Rep.
- 96%->99%: Solid Dem., Solid Rep.
Sources which do not have percentage forecasts — namely YouGov,
Cook, Roth, and Sabato — follow the same 7 categories and are
matched into their corresponding bin. YouGov notably does not have any
“Likely Dem.” or “Likely Rep.” categories.
The reported aggregate score “All models combined” is an
average of each forecast result, treating each prediction on a 7-point
scale.
Daily Kos and YouGov do not have additional data for the sub-districts
of Maine and Nebraska, the two states which give a portion of their
electoral votes to Congressional districts. For these two sources, it is
assumed sub-districts have the same prediction as the entire state.
This model assumes that Trump won 306 electoral votes, as this
corresponds to the outcome of the election if no electors had been
faithless. No models took faithless electors into account.
The Electoral Vote Distribution graphic uses data from The New York
Times, 538, Huffington Post, and PredictWise, as these sources were the
only to make their simulation data public on their website or available
upon request.